ライブドアのMSCB

[kabu]

書くのがすっかり遅くなっちゃったじゃないかぁ・・・

ライブドアがニッポン放送を買収するための資金として
MSCBに手を出したらしい。。。

J_Coffeeさんところの続・買ってはいけない(ライブドア)に詳しいことは書いてありまっす。


ポイントは3つ
1つ目は転換価格が下方だけでなく上方に修正されるかもしれないということ
2つ目は上限転換価格がないこと
3つ目はホリエモンが貸し株の強力をすること

1つ目
リーマンは800億円のMSCBを引き受けたんだけど、

800億円は、ライブドアの時価総額(643,250,879株×450円=2895億円)の27.6%に相当します。
もし、157円に株価が下がれば、その比率は79.2%に跳ね上がります。

転換価格が下がったほうがリーマンはより多くのライブドア株をGetできるということです。

2つ目

もし、仮に460円に上限転換価格が設定されたら、どうなるか?

上限転換価格が設定されて、将来的にライブドアの株価が1000円になりそう!
とか言う話なら長期で保有して株価が上がったところで売ればいいわけですよ
でも上限転換価格は設定されてないので、株価が上昇しても転換価格も上昇してしまって
うまみがまったくありません。持ってても、利子もつきませんしね


3つ目
ホリエモンはリーマンに自分の持ってる株の一部を貸してあげることになってるのね
一部ってどれくらいかわからんけど、少ないことはないわな
もし、下げる必要がないならリーマンは株を借りる必要はないわけですよ。
株を借りたってことは将来的に売る気がまんまんだから借りたんだろうなぁと

ま、そういうわけで今後のライブドアは
下限転換価格の157円にどれだけ近づくかが見ものだなぁ・・・

ニュースがでた後、全力で売りにいこうとしたけど、
ライブドアって信用銘柄じゃなくて売れなかった・・・orz
残念だ。。。
ま、観戦して楽しむことにします。


Posted by narajun : 2005年02月12日 22:27 | TrackBack
« スクール・オブ・ロック | トップへ戻る | ノルウェイの森 »
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